Trump's Economic Popularity Faces Critical Decline: Insights from a CNBC Survey

President Donald Trump is currently experiencing the most challenging period regarding public perception of his economic performance since taking office. This is according to the latest All-America Economic Survey by CNBC, a U.S.-based financial news channel. The poll reveals a significant shift towards pessimism among Americans, driven by dissatisfaction with tariffs, inflation, and federal spending.

Historic Lows in Economic Approval

Conducted between April 9 and 13 with a national sample of 1,000 individuals and a margin of error of ±3.1%, the survey shows Trump with a general approval rating of 44% against a 51% disapproval. Although this figure slightly surpasses the end of his first term in 2020, the alarming aspect is the evaluation of his economic management: 43% approve, while 55% disapprove, marking his worst net result in economic matters since assuming the presidency. This is the first time CNBC's survey records a net negative economic rating for Trump during his term.

This downturn comes post-reelection when economic optimism seemed to be on the rise.

Partisan Divide and Erosion of Core Support

While support among Republican voters remains strong, the decline in other sectors is significant:

• Democrats: Net economic disapproval of -90 percentage points, worsening by 30 points compared to the first term.
• Independents: A 23-point increase in disapproval.
• Manual workers, a crucial part of his electoral coalition, show a 14-point rise in disapproval compared to his first term.

Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Associates, a Democratic polling firm working with CNBC, summarizes the situation: "Donald Trump was reelected specifically to improve the economy, and so far, people aren't liking what they see."

Bleak Economic Outlook

Pessimism about the country's economic trajectory has reached unprecedented levels since 2023. Nearly half (49%) believe the economy will worsen in the coming year.

The breakdown by political affiliation reveals deep polarization:

• 76% of Republicans believe the economy will improve.
• 83% of Democrats and 54% of Independents think it will worsen.

Among those who expect the president's policies to bring benefits, 27% anticipate it will take over a year to see positive results. Meanwhile, 40% of critics believe his policies are already harming the economy.

Micah Roberts from Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm, emphasizes: "We are in a whirlwind of turbulent changes... It's the negative partisan reaction that drives and sustains the discontent."

Tariffs at the Heart of Discontent

A significant source of dissatisfaction is the trade policies. The survey indicates that 49% of Americans disapprove of widespread tariffs, while only 35% approve. The partisan divide is telling:

• Democrats: Net disapproval of 83 points.
• Independents: Net disapproval of 26 points.
• Republicans: Net approval of 59 points, 20 less than the president's overall approval (79%).

This suggests erosion of support even within his political core, especially as many perceive tariffs as negatively affecting American workers, inflation, and the overall economy.

Allies vs. China: A Trade Perspective

An overwhelming majority of respondents see Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Japan as economic opportunities rather than threats. This marks a shift from the earlier view during Trump's first term. Conversely, China is seen as an economic threat by 44% of Americans, compared to 35% who view it as an opportunity. This perception may reflect the success of the confrontational rhetoric towards China but also suggests a lack of public support for his aggressive stance with traditional allies.

Inflation and Spending: Critical Areas

Inflation is the area with the highest disapproval for the president:

• 60% disapprove of his handling, while only 37% approve.
• Among Republicans, it is his weakest performance, with a 58% net approval.

The fear of a recession has also grown significantly: 57% believe we are either in a recession or about to enter one, a notable increase from 40% in March 2024. Of these, 12% think the recession has already begun.

Regarding federal government spending, 51% disapprove, while 45% approve. In foreign policy, disapproval reaches 53%, with only 42% approval.

Immigration: A Rare Stronghold for Trump

Immigration remains the only issue where the president receives majority support:

• 53% approve of his management of the southern border (vs. 41% who disapprove).
• 52% approve of his deportation policies (vs. 45% who reject them).

This is also the only area where he enjoys majority support among Independents, and up to 22% of Democrats approve of his border approach, marking his best performance among that group.

Stock Market Pessimism and Uncertain Political Future

The perception of the stock market has also taken a downturn. 53% consider it a bad time to invest, and only 38% think it's a good time, marking the lowest point in two years. This change is notable given that December recorded the highest stock market optimism in the survey's 17-year history.

However, this decline in approval has not yet translated into gains for the Democrats. Preference for control of Congress remains practically stable: 48% in favor of Democrats, 46% in favor of Republicans, similar figures to those recorded in March 2022.

This scenario leaves President Trump in a precarious position: His base remains firm, but swing sectors show signs of fatigue and skepticism. The economy, the axis of his reelection, now becomes an unstable ground, the political consequences of which could define the direction of the next electoral cycle.