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Struggling Flights to Cuba: Operations to the Island Prove Unprofitable

Tuesday, April 15, 2025 by Sofia Valdez

While the Cuban regime touts ambitious plans to revamp José Martí International Airport in Havana into the Caribbean's leading hub, flights to the island from countries like Colombia are barely reaching 70% occupancy—a threshold that is economically unsustainable. According to a commercial aviation expert who spoke with REPORTUR, airlines such as Avianca, Copa, and Wingo have maintained their operations during the Easter season despite a sluggish demand that fails to cover the minimum costs for profitable operations. "They are flying, but surely with less than 70% occupancy, which is not profitable," the expert noted, adding that for a flight to be economically viable, it must exceed 80% occupancy with an average fare of at least $300.

Infrastructure Advances, But Where Are the Passengers?

During the recent International Transport and Logistics Fair, the Cuban government once again projected an image of modernization and growth in tourism, particularly with flights to Cuba. Joel Beltrán Archer Santos, president of the Cuban Aviation Corporation (CACSA), outlined plans for runway, platform, and terminal renovations, emphasizing the expansion of Terminal 3 and the development of a fixed-base operator at Terminal 5. In February, a new lounge with a capacity for 300 passengers and automated baggage processing systems was inaugurated. However, these advancements starkly contrast with a growing concern in Cuba's aviation sector: international airlines are canceling routes to the island due to lack of demand and deteriorating infrastructure, which adversely affects tourism.

Europe Distances Itself: Cancellations from Switzerland and Germany

Swiss airline Edelweiss Air canceled its Zurich-Havana connection in March, citing operational difficulties at Havana airport and low traveler interest. This move is mirrored by Germany's Condor, which will halt all its operations to Cuba by May 2025, thus eliminating the only direct route between Germany and the island. Condor pointed to declining passenger demand and worsening local conditions—ranging from power outages and shortages to logistical issues affecting traveler experience—as key factors for its withdrawal.

Tourism Decline: The Numbers Don't Take Off

The reduction in air connectivity is part of a broader trend—the decline of international tourism in Cuba, as travelers choose other Caribbean destinations like Punta Cana. According to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), only 196,004 international visitors arrived in Cuba in January 2024, the lowest figure recorded during peak season since 2007, excluding pandemic years. This drop is even more pronounced when compared to the 249,255 tourists in January 2023 and the 259,898 in January 2022. Overall, Cuba ended 2024 with approximately 2.2 million visitors, far below the 4.7 million it hosted in 2019.

A Lost Decade for Cuban Tourism

Experts like economist José Luis Perelló predict no short-term recovery for the sector. Cuba is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic tourism levels until 2030, which he describes as a "lost decade" for one of the island's traditional economic engines. The official optimism about transforming Havana into a regional hub is at odds with the lack of basic conditions that deter investors and tourists. Without energy security, functional modern infrastructure, and clear incentives for international airlines, the grand project announced by CACSA may remain an empty promise, as airplane seats continue to arrive unoccupied.

Frequently Asked Questions About Cuba's Aviation Challenges

Why are flights to Cuba currently unprofitable?

Flights to Cuba are struggling with low occupancy rates, often below 70%, which makes them economically unsustainable for airlines. For profitability, flights need at least 80% occupancy with a suitable average fare.

What are the reasons behind the decline in tourism to Cuba?

Several factors contribute to the decline, including deteriorating local conditions, such as power outages and shortages, as well as travelers opting for other Caribbean destinations with better infrastructure and amenities.

How is the Cuban government planning to address these aviation issues?

The Cuban government has announced plans for infrastructure modernization, including renovating runways and terminals at José Martí International Airport. However, these efforts face challenges due to persistent local issues and lack of demand.

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