• Submitted by: manso
• Society
• 11 / 02 / 2010

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By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist. Nov 2, 2010; 11:25 AM ET. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is still forecasting Tomas to slam into earthquake-ravaged Haiti as a hurricane late this week, bringing yet another disastrous blow to the impoverished nation.

While powerful winds are certainly a major concern for the more than 1 million people still living in makeshift shelters, it's Tomas' flooding rain that will be the greatest threat to life and ultimately the biggest disaster since January's earthquake.

The storm is currently predicted to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane over Haiti Friday. Even if the center of Tomas were to track completely west of Haiti without a landfall, it will still impact the nation with flooding rain.

Given its expected track, speed and intensity, AccuWeather.com Expert International Forecaster Jim Andrews advises that
rainfall on the order of 2 to 4 inches is likely in Haiti's capital city of Port-au-Prince, where an estimated 1.3 million residents displaced by the earthquake are living in tents and under tarps.

Rainfall on this order in the city alone will be enough to cause flooding and create a mess for these people.

To make matters worse, rainfall totals in the mountains that border Port-au-Prince to the south and southeast will be even higher, ranging from 4 to 8 inches or more, and will result in significant runoff down the slopes and into the city as well as surrounding populated areas.

Tomas is expected to start bringing increasing winds and rain to Haiti's southern coast late Thursday before making landfall Friday.

What has AccuWeather.com meteorologists even more concerned is the potential for Tomas to track more slowly across Haiti than currently expected. Slower movement could easily lead to double the rainfall.

In other mountainous areas of Haiti where Tomas' winds flow uphill, especially across the south, rainfall totals will be on the order of a foot or more regardless of the storm's speed.

Adding to an already disastrous situation is the fact that widespread deforestation has taken place across Haiti. On exposed slopes, runoff will be quicker, more significant and carry with it mud, rocks and other debris that will cover anything in its path.

This threat applies at least to part of the area that drains into Port-au-Prince.

As for winds, it may only take minimal tropical storm-force gusts to destroy makeshift shelters earthquake victims are living in. The current forecast track brings Tomas west of Port-au-Prince. If it passes close enough, this track will put the city in the right, front quadrant of the storm with the strongest winds.

Andrews says that even if the earthquake had never hit Haiti in January, Tomas on its own would be a disaster for the nation given the current expectations for the storm.

Related to the Story:

Tomas: A Worst Case Scenario for Haiti

2010 Hurricane Center

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Source: www.accuweather.com/