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Noel meandering near the north coast of Cuba.

Bulletin tropical storm Noel intermediate advisory number 16a
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 200 pm edt Wed Oct 31 2007

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Ávila, Camaguey, Llas Tunas, Granma, Holguin and Santiago de Cuba.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas.

Interests in southern Florida should monitor the progress of Noel. As Noel's wind field approaches southeast Florida the existing wind advisory and gale warning may be replaced by a tropical storm warning. In either case winds near gale/tropical storm force are likely to continue along the coast during the next 24 hours.

At 200 pm edt the center of tropical storm Noel was located near latitude 22.6 north longitude 78.8 west or about 190 miles-305 km south-southwest of Nassau. This position is just off the north coast of Cuba near Cayo Santa Maria.

Noel drifted westward during the past few hours but is currently nearly stationary. A turn to the north is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph-85 km/hr with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles-185 km from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft was 996 mb-29.41 inches.

Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.

Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected over Hispaniola. These rains especially in Hispaniola and Cuba are expected to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5:00 pm edt.

Source: National Hurricane Center, forecaster franklin

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