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Bulletin Hurricane Dean intermediate advisory number 16a
Bulletin Hurricane Dean intermediate advisory number 16a
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl al042007
800 am ast fri aug 17 2007

Dean pounding Martinique and Dominica, heading for the eastern
Caribbean Sea.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical storm warning also remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles, Grenada
and its dependencies, Saba, St. Eustatius, Montserrat, Antigua, Nevis, St Kitts, Barbuda, St. Maarten and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the south coast of the
Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the Haiti/Dominican Republic
border. a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

At 800 am ast...1200z...the tropical storm warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines been discontinued.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western caribbean including
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress
of Dean.

At 800 am ast...1200z...the center of hurricane Dean was located by
an air force hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 14.4 north...
longitude 61.7 west or 50 miles-80 km west-southwest of

Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph-37 km/hr and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next 24 hours. this motion should take the
center of Dean away from the lesser antilles later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph-160 km/hr with higher
gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Stronger winds especially in gusts are likely
over elevated terrain near the path of the center. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles-35 km from
the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles-220 km. Fort-de-france on Martinique recently reported a
wind gust of 87 mph...143 km/hr while Dominica reported a wind
gust of 64 mph-104 km/hr.

A reconnaissance plane just measured a minimum central pressure of
970 mb-28.64 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves is possible
near the center of Dean.

Storm total rainfall of 2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches in mountainous areas are possible in
association with Dean in the Lesser Antilles. across Puerto
Rico storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected with
maximum amounts of up to 5 inches. these rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am ast.

Source: National Hurricane Center, forecaster avila/mainelli

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