Bulletin
Hurricane Dean advisory number 14

National Hurricane Center Miami Fl al042007 500 pm ast thu aug 16 2007

Hurricane Dean rapidly approaching the Lesser Antilles with 100 mph winds.

At 5:00 p.m. ast...2100 utc...the government of France has issued a hurricane warning for Martinique, Guadeloupe and its dependencies hurricane warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles: Grenada and its dependencies, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Saba, St. Eustatius, Monserrat, Antigua, Nevis, St Kitts, Barbuda and St. Maarten. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 500 pm ast...2100 utc...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Dean.

At 500 pm ast...2100z...the center of hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.0 north, longitude 56.5 west or about 210 miles-335 km east-northeast of Barbados and about 305 miles-490 km east of Martinique.

Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph-37 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On this track, the center of Dean will be crossing the Lesser Antilles early friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph-160 km/hr, with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely over elevated terrain. Some strengthening is forecast before the hurricane reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles-30 km, from the center. Data from NOAA buoy 41040...the french buoy 41101 and a new stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on the air force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles-240 km, from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported from an air force reserve reconnaissance plane was 979 mb-28.91 inches. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves, is possible near the center of Dean.

Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas, are possible in association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

forecaster avila/BLAKE